If you count lawn signs on rural roads in western Maine, you’ll find Trump-Pence placards barely outnumbering “Stump Grinding,” “For Sale,” “Clean Fill Wanted” and “Fresh Eggs.” By that measure the next president of the United States could be some guy named Stump.
As for Joe Biden, he’s being trounced by “Yard Sale.”
Of course, the lawn sign is a notoriously inaccurate method of rating political races. All it takes is a handful of motivated volunteers to cover the landscape with boldly printed cardboard designed to give the impression somebody is electable. If lawns voted, Eric Brakey – who put out tons of signs – would currently be the Republican candidate for Congress in Maine’s 2nd District, and Democratic 1st District U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree – who puts out hardly any – would be tending bar on North Haven.
Lawn signs don’t win elections, but they do indicate something about how campaigns are being run. And the two major parties have very different strategies in the 2nd District and nationwide.
“The Republican and Democratic parties – from presidential candidates on down – are taking polar opposite approaches to door-to-door canvassing this fall,” said the Politico website. “The competing bets on the value of face-to-face campaigning during a pandemic has no modern precedent, making it a potential wild card in November, especially in close races.”
In the recent past, Democrats relied on a solid ground game to reach rural Maine voters, knocking on doors and holding campaign events. Republicans took a more stand-offish approach, contenting themselves with mailers and TV spots. This year, the two sides have switched places.
According to the Bangor Daily News, the GOP has spent over $800,000 through June on direct voter contacts, and the party claims to have reached 600,000 people, a few of whom might actually vote. At every stop, volunteer canvassers gave Trump signs to anyone who’d take one, which accounts for the incumbent’s sizable edge on local lawns. It’s possible they also offered to grind stumps.
Democrats, more conscious of the coronavirus danger, have made no similar effort to engage voters on their front porches. Instead, they’re texting, phoning and hosting virtual events. They’ve spent a mere $200,000 in Maine and reached far fewer people than the Republicans, a strategy that one operative told the Bangor paper, puts the “focus more on quality over quantity.” Biden supporters may also qualify for clean fill.
Whose approach is working best?
Trump carried the 2nd District by 10 points in 2016, giving him a single Electoral College vote. But he lost the statewide tally – and Maine’s other three electoral votes – because he got swamped in the liberal 1st District. Even though that doesn’t seem like a great trade-off, Republicans are nevertheless intent on a repeat performance.
In two recent polls, Biden leads Trump by sizable margins statewide, but in the 2nd District, the two were within 2 points of each other. In spite of the lawn signs, Trump seems to have lost ground, at least for now. Former Gov. Paul LePage, the president’s state campaign chairman, says Trump will likely make two more visits to the area (he’s already been here once) before November, which could boost his numbers, particularly if he buys some fresh eggs.
In contrast, Biden will put more emphasis on states with a bigger Electoral College payoff, limiting his Maine efforts to online mumbling. Did he just say he’ll buy that old lamp at your yard sale?
These contrasting campaign approaches will have implications for races further down the ballot. Trump’s appearances are unlikely to help GOP U.S. Sen. Susan Collins, who’s attempting to maintain a certain distance from his ineptitude. Biden’s invisibility won’t provide a boost to Democratic House Speaker Sara Gideon, who holds a tenuous lead over Collins. Likewise, Democratic U.S. Rep. Jared Golden can’t expect much help from the top of the ticket in his re-election bid, while his challenger, Republican Dale Crafts, is clinging to Trump’s coattails for dear life.
Doesn’t matter to me. I’m voting for Stump.
The only sign in my front yard says “Keep Out.” But you can still email me at aldiamon@herniahill.net.
Al,
Stop letting those narrowing poll numbers keep you awake at night worrying.
You need rest bud!
Everything Is Beautiful.
I think the Democrats’ strategy, from the top down, is to hide their candidates, keep them out of debates, and let them take no questions from the press. Their calculation is that Joe Biden has no chance to beat Trump, but “generic Democrat” just might. Sara Gideon has little chance against Susan Collins, but “generic Democrat” might do fine. They want to frame the election as “for or against Trump” and “for or against Collins”, hoping that people will vote “against”, and not ask too many questions about their own dubious candidates. Given what they have to work with, it’s probably a shrewd strategy, and it might even work.
Zzzzz.
Remember the saying: “As Maine goes, so goes the nation”? That’s been true in most presidential elections. But let’s not forget the election of 1936, when Franklin D. Roosevelt won every state except Maine and Vermont. I hope Trump will make another visit to Puritan Medical Products in Guilford, Maine, so that the company will again have to throw away all the swabs they made that day because Trump refused to wear a mask. That will remind voters of his words last week during a press conference last week about his record fighting the pandemic:“It’s been amazing what we’ve been able to do.” Yes, it is amazing, in the same way that a two-headed chicken is amazing.
Lawn signs and bumper stickers are about name recognition. They rarely contain new or useful information. They are meant for voters who come to the polling places with no other information except vaguely remembered names. Celebrities of every type except (perhaps) serial murder have an advantage which is worth a lot of money. Incumbents, like Pingree and Collins collect recognition every year they are in office.
I wrote a column in 2016 about sign-spotting on a Farmington-Guilford drive. There were plenty of Trump signs on private property. I saw no Hillary signs except on public places, presumably staked out by Democratic Party committees. A NYT column written at almost the same time by a journalist traveling around the mid-west on a motorcycle noticed the same phenomenon.
I haven’t been traveling much lately. Have any Bulldog readers been doing similar sign counting this year?
“VOTE FOR JEFF JOHNSON, A NAME YOU KNOW”
John Frary I tried commenting on this the other day but it didn’t make it on here, probably because of what I told Al he should do with his beer and mind altering drugs he seems to be on writing these idiotic op-eds. I haven’t seen more than a couple Biden signs. One I couldn’t read and the other made the statement of “he won’t inject you with bleach”. I have seen a couple other signs that said “for the love of God anyone but Trump” it doesn’t seem that thers is a lot of open support for the guy running against the incumbent. Then again I’m not sure if he would remember day to day that he is running unless his wife reminds him.
John Frary…I’ve seen plenty of Trump yard signs and flags, very, very few for Biden. Shows there is no enthusiasm for Biden among democrats.